Desktop computers and applications. Will they become obsolete ?

Do you read a lot in blogs about how the future of software is the cloud ?

How about how tablet PC’s will make desktop PC’s obsolete ?

While there will definitely be an impact, common sense tells us that it is unlikely that desktop PC’s will disappear and that desktop applications are a thing of the past. For a number of years I wrote custom software for local businesses from large manufacturers to “Mom and Pop” operations. Amazingly some of that software, written over 10 to 15 years ago is still in use today. I can think of at least three local businesses who still depend upon the software I wrote for them in the mid 90’s. I can’t imagine a single one of them using the software on a Tablet PC or using it if it were a cloud application. Just imagine if bad weather were to temporarily bring down the necessary internet connections required to maintain a cloud based application ? Those companies just would not and could not tolerate it.

No cloud application or tablet based application is going to have the speed of a native application on a well built desktop PC. Thats a fact. Some of those customers of mine, still prefer a DOS based (text screen) version of the software because it is so much faster for user input than a Windows based application. If speed is so critical to such computer users, then do you really think they would tolerate the slow speeds of a cloud based application?

Now how about something as simple a keyboard input ? Sure a tablet PC can use an external keyboard, but that defeats the whole purpose of a tablet PC, which is light weight and an extremely small form factor. People love to carry around an IPad or Windows based Tablet, but can you imagine them lugging around a big old keyboard ? Now you say, they can make smaller, more portable external keyboards. The problem is the smaller they make them, you lose out on some of the features that make one of those “big old” keyboards so valuable.

I am a programmer and I do a lot of typing. I type a lot on the web for tech support forums, my blog  and long support emails. I type a lot when coding. Actually I am a very fast coder, where some may only write a few lines of code in a hours time, I have at my peak written a good hundred lines of code in a hours time. So what kind of keyboard do I use ? I still use the classic IBM Model M keyboard which is a good 15 to 20 years old. It has the perfect feel and real click keys. I can’t stand most of the new keyboards which come with computers (cheap quality). I can tolerate my laptop keyboard (Netbook class with 12 inch screen). Even if I had a huge 17 inch screen laptop with a big keyboard, I really don’t like the touch pad in front of the keyboard though. It gets in the way. Also at home, I connect a real mouse to my laptop. No touchpad will be as productive as a real mouse.

The point is, that at times we keep coming back to the larger form factor of computers (ie. keyboard, mouse, screen) because they are more productive.

While the love of everything small, such as tablet PC’s and the love for everything internet based, such as the cloud, will have an impact on desktop computers, I really doubt that desktop computers are going to disappear any time soon. Common sense tells us that desktop PC’s will be around for a long time and no cloud application is ever going to be as fast and as reliable as a native desktop application.